AEI Researchers Analyze Farmland Sales Volume Across the Midwest

Researchers from Agricultural Economic Insights (AEI), Randy Dickhut and David Widmar, tapped into data from Acres.com to uncover recent shifts in Midwest farmland sales activity. Their analysis provides a nuanced view of how land transaction volumes have evolved across five key states, highlighting both regional trends and state-specific surprises.

Key Takeaways

The Highs and Lows

Farmland sales activity has experienced dramatic swings. In 2023, the Midwest index peaked at 115% of baseline—marking the highest level since 2018. Just one year later, 2024 sales fell to under 95% of average annual activity. These fluctuations underscore the market's volatility and the value of real-time insights.

Geography Matters

The regional story isn’t one-size-fits-all:

• Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois followed the expected pattern of a 2021 sales peak, followed by declines.
• Indiana saw a secondary bump in 2023, and Illinois rebounded in 2024—diverging from Iowa’s downward trend.
• Ohio remained remarkably steady over the five-year period.
• Minnesota, after a sluggish 2021 and 2022, posted a notable jump in 2023.

These variations reflect not just geography, but also land use. States like Minnesota have more woodland and pasture, adding layers of complexity to market activity.

Surprising Trends

While anecdotal reports painted a mixed picture, the data showed a regional uptick in 2023, even as individual states varied. Sales dipped in 2022 and again in 2024, yet both years still outpaced the activity levels of 2018 and 2019—when the baseline hovered around 90.

Final Thoughts

Farmland sales in 2024 reached their lowest point since 2019, but the story is far from simple.

State-level analysis shows a rollercoaster of activity—with some markets rebounding and others continuing to cool. Acres offers recent, relevant sales data that is updated regularly to better depict market movement.

Check out the full AEI report to dive deeper into the findings.