Market Snapshot: Land Signals in Phoenix Housing Development

The Phoenix Metro area (covering Maricopa and Pinal Counties) ranks among the top U.S. housing markets thanks to robust population and price growth. The Acres Home Builder Index reveals where top builders are acquiring land across this high-growth region, providing a forward-looking view of the housing landscape.

Here are some key insights from 2020-2025:

• From 2020-2025, the Phoenix metro area saw over $4B in buyer transactions from production home builders alone—spanning raw land, entitled parcels, and finished lots.
• Production builders have acquired more than 12,000 acres in Maricopa and Pinal Counties during the same time period.
• D.R. Horton, Lennar, and Richmond American Homes appear as the top movers and shakers in the area in total sales volume.
• Builders are targeting fast-growing cities like Maricopa, Buckeye, Peoria, and San Tan Valley.

Quarterly Chart

Map represents Arizona total home builder land transactions (2020-2025). 

Key Growth Drivers

The Phoenix metro area gained nearly 85,000 people from 2023‑24, about 14,500 via births and 70,000 migrants. 

Here are some of the key factors driving this growth:

• Migration-led population increases: Phoenix leads the state in net migration, with Maricopa County alone gaining more new residents than any other Arizona county. Immigration accounted for over half the metro’s population growth in the past year.
  
  
• Job growth in high-demand sectors: The Phoenix area is seeing employment expansion in tech, manufacturing, and healthcare, industries that continue to draw workers from out of state and abroad.
  
  
• Corporate and capital investment: Phoenix continues to attract industrial and redevelopment investments, with national recognition as a top industrial growth market.
  
  
• Housing unit expansion: Both Maricopa and Pinal Counties saw housing unit growth, enabling the metro to accommodate new population growth. Maricopa county holds the title for most new homes built in the last year than any other U.S. county. 
  
  
• Land availability: The Phoenix metro’s land supply, zoning capacity, and access to key infrastructure corridors supports large-scale land acquisition, development, and investment.

Continued Challenges With Water

Arizona’s groundwater constraints are beginning to impact the pace and scope of future development in Phoenix’s metro areas.

Potential development impacts include:

• Delayed or denied approvals for new subdivisions in areas without an assured 100-year water supply.
  
  
• Increased development risk in fringe or unincorporated areas that lack centralized water infrastructure or are outside major service providers’ reach.
  
  
• Rising demand for water credits or alternative sources, increasing both project timelines and costs.
  
  
• Scrutiny intensifying around groundwater use and new build approvals, potentially altering long-term viability in certain locations.

Water availability remains a critical factor when evaluating land strategy in Greater Phoenix. As the population continues to rise, long-term development will be shaped by how well the region can align growth with water supply.

Final Thoughts

Land transactions offer the earliest possible signal of where development is headed. The Acres Home Builder Index delivers future-state land intelligence, giving you a competitive edge by showing where builders are placing bets before the market becomes oversaturated or competition gets there first.

Want to see where development is headed years ahead of the market? Connect with our team today to get access.